Thursday, March 3, 2011

~pray to the porcelein god~

“Kelly is going to a college party. So she will drink lots of alcohol.”

The premise is “Kelly is going to a college party”. The conclusion is “So, she will drink a lot of alcohol.”

The argument is valid, but it is not a good argument because it jumps into conclusion, which is called slippery slope fallacy. When event X has happened (or will or might happened), therefore event Y will inevitably happen.

I can alleviate this argument by adding a premise, “Since many people might be drinking, Kelly might be more tempted to drink more alcohol”.

Another premise I can add is “Kelly doesn’t have any plans the night after; and she have a reputation to “pray the porcelain god” during her college ritual.”

Furthermore, I can change the conclusion to "So, she will most likely drink a lot of alcohol".

By having this extra premises and modifying the conclusion, it gives more reason to believe the argument, which makes it valid. In addition, having more valid reasons make it harder to argue. This can make a good argument.

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